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City Manager Thomas Mattis plainly laid out what the rapid growth of the greater “Elgin Community” means for its population during last week’s City Council meeting.
The city manager’s report on community growth tallied up all residential subdivisions within Elgin and its extra territorial jurisdiction, as tracking only building activity within city limits would not be a true reflection of the bigger picture and its impacts on the town.
“I think this is a report that has value to the people, I hope it’s an opportunity for citizens to understand the numbers we’re talking about and what we anticipate for the future,” said Mattis.
The city manager began his presentation by noting that cities like Elgin have to embrace growth, laws have changed, and municipalities don’t necessarily have control over expansion.
“It’s not a question about whether or not we want to see more residential growth, but it’s how we’re going to manage that growth as it comes to us,” Mattis added.
“I know 50,000 [residents] is a lot, hard to imagine in Elgin, but again, this is what the math tells us.”
— City Manager Thomas Mattis Looking at all of Elgin’s subdivisions, there is a total of 14,652 authorized lots, 3,663 of which are complete constructions, existing residential properties that are built and presumed occupied.
There are 1,233 lots considered in active construction, ongoing developments not yet complete or occupied. This includes everything from houses that are just a few days away from a certificate of occupancy to lots that have been freshly bulldozed. An important number to note, as once money has been put in, developers typically fully intend to build out all of their units, according to Mattis.
This leaves 9,756 remaining lots, authorized under development agreements, but yet to initiate construction.
A talking point for both the council and community members, municipal utility districts represent 70% of this future growth.
Mattis emphasized again that MUDs front the entire bill for their development and do not present an impact for taxpayers, simultaneously creating new revenue streams for the city.
Even before including these future endeavors, Elgin’s rapid development has had a significant impact on its population, according to Mattis.
Of the 3,663 existing occupied home sites, 1,663 single family homes have been built since 2019.
“What we’ve seen in Elgin is the equivalent of one new home being built every day since mid-2019, and frankly, we don’t see any indication of that slowing down,” said Mattis.
The Peppergrass subdivision, 280 planned homes, just issued its last certificates of occupancy. What the owners initially thought would take over five years to complete was finished in less than three, one of many indications of how quickly the market is driving development, added the city manager.
By using a multiplier of two and a half people per residence on the current combined number of original town, pregrowth and built since 2019 homes, Elgin’s current population is around 15,000. This is a conservative estimation, according to Mattis.
The United States Census Bureau listed Elgin with a population of 10,549 in 2021.
Projecting forward, Mattis estimates this number will reach close to 20,000 in three years. For that not to happen, he believes a dramatic change in the current housing market would need to occur.
Furthermore, if everything slated to come to the city was to be completed, its population would near 47,000 individuals.
“I know 50,000 [residents] is a lot, hard to imagine in Elgin, but again, this is what the math tells us,” said Mattis. “The key on this number is when will that happen? It’s frankly anybody’s guess. If the housing market continues like it is, we continue to see pressure on the Austin market and people wanting to come out here, then it could happen relatively quickly. The good news is it’s not going to happen next year.”
The ratio of residents living within city limits compared to its ETJ will also see movement. Currently 80% of Elginites reside incity, estimated to change to 70% in three years and 40% if everything in the books was to be completed.
Reassuringly, Mattis believes that the city has handled its growth well, so far, and is prepared for its further development. He also sees the city recognizing the positive impacts that the ETJ developments will have on the area.
Of the four ETJ MUDs inbound since 2019, three will have new schools on site, with potential for the fourth to add one, as well. All of which are also required to dedicate 2 acres of land for public safety use.
Additionally, with a conservative $200,000 taxable value on homes, Elgin Independent School District should see an annual revenue increase of about $3 million in three years.
While potentially jarring to see the flat numbers, the city manager was confident in his analysis.
“Growth has been here for a while. These aren’t unique situations to Elgin, this is the way growth is going to happen,” said Mattis.
The city manager’s full report can be found at https://www.elgintexas. gov/156/City-Manager.
